Ground Rules

Aeronautical decision-making (ADM) is arguably the most important skill a pilot can have. Unfortunately, it is difficult to precisely define, making structured development for all possible situations a challenge.

While indisputable judgements about a pilot’s decisions are sometimes only determined in hindsight after a bad day, we must never allow ambiguity to prevent us from striving to make all the right decisions each time we fly. We don’t have perfect tools and strategies for developing ADM, but what we do have is very effective when applied with consistency.

You know it when you see it.

Good decision-making, especially in aviation, can be positively identified during preflight preparation. It involves gathering information from various sources, identifying potential risks and ways to mitigate them, and then taking action.

14 CFR 91.103 requires the PIC to become aware of all 'available' information before a flight. This means obtaining weather briefings, checking NOTAMs, understanding the operation and limitations of the aircraft to be flown, familiarizing oneself with the conditions and procedures for the intended use airports, the length of runways, and any known flight delays.

That’s all well and good, but gathering the required information is simply the assembly of tools needed to practice good ADM. What actually defines good ADM? Well, you’ll know it when you see it, both in yourself and in other pilots, when the question, “What if…” arises while briefing a flight.

The recursive checklist of good judgment

After obtaining all necessary information, required both by statute and based on specific knowledge and concerns the pilot has that the FARs couldn’t possibly anticipate, the pilot then can apply the FAA's acronym PAVE, which stands for Pilot, Aircraft, enVironment, External pressure (or Expectations). This is where we’ll illustrate good ADM in a novel way that will both feel familiar yet strike you as something you’ve not seen overtly discussed before.  

Let’s go through an example of a pilot planning a one-hour cross-country using PAVE in a realistic way that promotes improved ADM.  

Pilot: Am I ready and able to conduct a safe flight? I feel good about my proficiency. Let’s check my mind and body with IMSAFE.

• Illness – Last illness was a head cold four weeks ago. I’m recovered.
• Medication – I use Afrin on occasion, including last night, but no issues right now.
• Stress – Nope.
• Alcohol – I don’t drink.
• Fatigue – I’ve been sleeping just fine, and I’m wide awake without needing caffeine.
• Emotion – Family is good; work is good; life is good.

Aircraft: Is it capable of conducting a safe flight? If there are any deficiencies, under what circumstances could they threaten safety?

• My airplane has 23 hours on it since its annual five months ago. My preflight check revealed nothing concerning, and my fractional partner last flew it yesterday, reporting that it worked flawlessly.

enVironment: Is the information I have about the environment reliable and comprehensive for the location and duration of my flight, including diversions? Am I interpreting the available information fully and correctly?  

• I always give myself a “double briefing,” once through my EFB and again through aviationweather.gov. I feel confident that the weather information I studied was reliable, complete, and accurate, and both sources largely agreed with one another. There are some additional tools on aviationweather.gov that I don’t typically use, but I’m only going to be in the air for an hour or so.
• Hmmm…now that I think about it, I probably wouldn’t enjoy too much turbulence since my lower back is still a little stiff from pickleball last week. I must’ve tweaked it more than I thought. I suppose the “I” in IMSAFE should stand for injury as well as illness. Glad I thought of that.

Back to Pilot:

• I need to be sure there’s no chance I could make my back worse, possibly leading it to cramp up while I’m PIC. That could be a real risk factor if I can’t efficiently articulate the controls as needed, for instance, in a crosswind landing.

Back to enVironment:

• Aviationweather.gov has a flight path cross-section tool that my EFB doesn’t have. I’m going to use it just to be sure I’m not tempting fate.
• There is moderate turbulence along my predicted route due to a low-pressure system moving in.  
• Low pressure can also exacerbate sinus tissues that have recently swollen enough to require a nasal spray, and I don’t have any Afrin with me. A stuffy nose usually affects my eyesight.

Back to Pilot:

• Am I certain I can conduct a safe flight? I’m starting to think tomorrow might be a better day to try again. Would I be okay today? Probably, but there’s a small chance things could go badly, and I can avoid that entirely by not flying today.

Emotions/Expectations:

• Great, actually. I’m a little proud I didn’t even make it to the “E” in PAVE because I’m exercising good ADM.

Expectations can be a tricky thing to manage. As a rule, pilots are typically driven individuals who want to complete tasks, including planned flights. Although the pilot cannot control the weather or the condition of the airplane if s/he discovers a mechanical issue during preflight, there are times when a pilot pushes to complete the flight. Fortunately, the human mind is also capable of establishing values that provide an even greater emotional payoff when a pilot attaches well-earned pride to choosing not to tempt fate.

This example is one of millions of plausible scenarios that could have been presented here.  That’s one of the issues that makes ADM difficult to define and teach with precision. However, as mentioned earlier, there are rules and tools that can dramatically improve your ADM, provided they are used consistently. So, for the countless situations that will challenge your decision-making, consider using the following standard.

The rule of three

Many general aviation pilots embrace "the rule of three" as a tool when making the go/no-go decision. If there are three or more issues, the pilot opts to cancel the flight or amend the plan of action. For example, the pilot is delayed driving to the airport due to heavy traffic, a non-required but nice-to-have instrument is inop, and the preflight inspection uncovers a minor maintenance issue that eats into the planned flight time.

You have to ask yourself if this flight will be in your and your passengers’ best interests. If the answer is no, plan to fly another day.